Five Novice Chase Statistics

Statistics and trends are now part and parcel of the analysis of the Cheltenham Festival; here are five of the strongest from the novice chases at the meeting that are well worth considering when making your selections for the Cheltenham Festival.

Arkle Chase

Class tells in the Arkle - so much so that 11 of the last 12 winners have been rated 142+ over hurdles (Voy Pour Ustedes the exception), so it’s always worth checking how your selection was rated over hurdles to make sure that it measures up to that criteria. The leading players fit that bill with something to spare this season; Peddlers Cross (170), Menorah (162), Al Ferof (154), Cue Card (151) and Sprinter Sacre (149) all comfortably qualifying. Anyone looking at the Cheltenham betting should remember this.

Like many races at the Festival coming into the race in good form is important also – with 23 of the last 25 winners of the Arkle coming into the race on the back of a win or a second place.

RSA Chase

The last 11 winners had all raced at least three times over fences - a statistic that we like as you always need a very tough horse for this race, that statistic would have ruled out previous strong contenders in Punchestowns and Diamond Harry (2010) and Killyglen and What A Friend (2009). All were fancied and they all finished unplaced – and the same thing happened last year when 7/4 favourite Time For Rupert finished fifth after having just two previous runs to the Festival. Inexperience over fences has no place at the Cheltenham Festival. People placing Cheltenham 2012 bets need to bear this in mind.

If there is an age group worth concentrating on in the RSA Chase then it is seven year olds, who have won the last six runnings so take particular note of those but beware horses aged one year younger as this is a tough race and they have been found out on numerous occasions winning just twice since 1978.

National Hunt Steeple Chase

If you fancy a five or six-year-old for this then their combined record of 1-63 since 1989 might make you think twice. Entering the race off the back of a decent effort is also a must as only two of the last 28 winners failed to finish in the first four last time out but, more importantly, seven of the last ten winners finished first or second on their most recent start.

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