Can value be found in the Champion Hurdle?
Part of the appeal of this year's Champion Hurdle is that it is one of the most open in years with plenty of apparent strength in depth but there are some major questions that need answering before you get involved from a betting perspective.
The reigning Champion hurdler Binocular appears to be a horse that divides opinion, currently favourite for the race his 2-3-1 record at the Festival is a major plus point. The doubts are always sown by his poor performances in the run-up to the Festival, but those races are usually small field, slowly run affairs which don't suit him – he needs the flat out gallop that the majority of Festival races are run at. Having said that, he is a significantly shorter price than he was last year and this looks a far stronger renewal of the race. Plenty of people will be looking at the Cheltenham Gold Cup odds, but this seems to be a race where there is value to be found.
So the doubts remain but who can capitalise?
2007 produced the last Irish Champion Hurdle winner and in Hurricane Fly they once again have a credible challenger, but despite running in nine consecutive Grade One hurdles, his form is still questioned. That's because he has been beating the same horse – Solwhit – time and time again and Solwhit was never good enough to win a Champion Hurdle. Hurricane Fly has an impressive cruising speed but there has to be a worry about the quality of the opposition that he has been beating and this will be his toughest test yet, especially with the Cheltenham hill to cope with.
Menorah and Peddlers Cross are the two newcomers on the scene, both being winners of novice hurdles at last year's Festival. Menorah has a sharper turn of foot than many give him credit for and he is unbeaten at Cheltenham, it's true that he has some ground to make up on Binocular in form terms but a 7-10lb improvement would give him a real chance and he will no doubt attract plenty of Cheltenham free bets.
The question mark against Peddlers Cross is whether he has enough speed to win a Champion Hurdle, having been successful over 2M 5F here last year, he was briefly outpaced in that race and the suspicion is that the same may happen again. He may be staying on when the race is over.
There are also some dangerous outsiders still floating around at bigger prices and we would be hard pushed to write off the chance of the fast improving Oscar Whisky and Mille Chief – all of those criteria will make for a fascinating and challenging Champion Hurdle on the opening day of the 2011 Cheltenham Festival.
